Illusion of Survival Without Egypt

By: Ayman Okeil

It is no secret that Egypt is going through various economic challenges, including high rates of inflation and its impact on Egyptians, lower foreign investment volume, high prices of basic commodities and foodstuffs, and erosion of national currency. These challenges were compounded by recent Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, leading to a sharp decline in Suez Canal revenues by 40% in January 2024, according to Lieutenant-General Osama Rabie, Chairman of Suez Canal Authority (SCA). Unfortunately, the confluence of existing challenges and recent events has emboldened some regional actors to believe they have an opportunity to fill a leadership vacuum in the Middle East, potentially at Egypt’s expense.

The Egyptian state, which has long been a decisive voice on Middle Eastern issues, has lost its traditional regional leadership role in favor of newer regional players, who may even be involved in fueling its economic crises, hoping to maintain Egypt’s weakened state and limited capabilities to influence the region. However, we believe they are delusional, as the Middle East cannot achieve true recovery without a strong and engaged Egypt, regardless of parties leading it.

In this context, in November 2023, Professor Tarek Masoud, an expert in democracy and governance at Harvard University, stated during an interview with CNN, “If Egypt sneezes, the region will develop cancer.” Furthermore, Egypt is not a nation whose status can diminish without grave consequences for all. However, Egyptians should not solely rely on their country’s status and the crucial geopolitical position it holds. They must recognize that we inhabit a region continually surrounded by regional risks and crises.

While Western reports currently describe Egypt as “too big to fail,” we must adhere to hard work principles, with each official fulfilling their assigned duties.

Robust economies must also possess the capacity to withstand shocks and confront global challenges. In the strategic directions document for Egyptian economy 2024-2030, there is a glimmer of hope. It aims to reduce public debt, achieve an economic growth rate of approximately 8%, and enhance public participation in GDP through increased exports. Additionally, the document emphasizes human rights by seeking to raise female workforce participation from 15% to 32%, promoting women’s empowerment and aligning with Egypt’s commitments under CEDAW agreement. It also accelerates progress towards achieving SDG5.

However, the document implementation phase is more crucial than its creation. It is difficult to envision a positive change unless there is a genuine agenda and a clear work program for reform that prioritizes the resources required to realize document’s objectives. It is worth noting that Egypt possesses the capability to overcome this crisis, and its decisions will remain decisive on matters where leadership falls solely within its purview, unaffected by delusions of others.